"Based on what the polls tell us right now, the
state is at a crossroads. Voters are unsure whether they
want the comfort of the status quo (as unimaginable as that
status quo is to Democrats) or whether they want to try a
different approach. If we do our job in the final days of
this election, we will get out the votes of people who think
we need a different approach in Arizona and Take Back the
State. " -- Rick McGuire, on the Maricopa County
Democratic Party TV show "Politically Speaking"
Deja Vu
If you look at the polls, many, MANY of the races this year
are just too close to call. It's 2000 all over again, with
voters almost evenly divided on whether to maintain the status
quo or hand the reins over to new leadership and new ideas. We
have 3 weekends to win or lose the election. Here's what you
need to know, first, to make sure it is the former, not the
latter.
The good news (actually, a quick summary of the good news;
there is more good news than we can reasonably communicate in
a short PC Tip Sheet): The State and County Democratic Parties
have registered 40,000 new Democrats. We have an extraordinary
slate of candidates across the ballot. Even the right-leaning
Arizona Republic endorsed 6 of our 9 statewide candidates and
a surprising number of Dems for legislative races. The Party
has had an unprecedented amount of resources this election
cycle, including the most important: human resources.
The gargantuan effort to date is paying off. Some 250,000
persuadable Republicans and Independents have been identified
and these people are being targeted with up to 9 separate
messages up to election day. The numbers are moving in our
favor. In the past, Republican efforts at encouraging Vote By
Mail have outpaced Democratic efforts, producing a better than
2 to 1 advantage in favor of the Rs. Since an estimated half
of all votes are expected to be cast by mail, we must close
this gap. Statewide this year, the numbers are a lot tighter
than that 2 to 1 ratio. If we can continue to close the VBM
gap or come close, we'll win.
Who are the persuadables? As State Democratic Party
Chairman Jim Pederson explained last night in a Central
Regional-Maricopa County Coordinated Campaign meeting:
"We know who the people are who return their ballots
immediately. That's the core base of voters. They know exactly
who they are voting for and they fill out their ballot as soon
as they receive it or shortly thereafter. Persuadables are
those voters who wait to mail their ballots. Often, they
haven't yet decided who they will vote for. They are the
persuadable Republicans and the persuadable
Independents."
Not to mention a few lazy Democrats! The bad news is that
perhaps 10% or more requested ballots are never returned.
Since 90% of registered Dems will support our candidates,
leaving those votes in a garbage can somewhere is NOT a good
idea. Even worse: far more people simply won't take the time
to vote - unless we do something. Here's what you can do.
Take Back the State
With races so tight and the opportunities so great this
year, we have to do our best for the next 3 weekends. As we
said in our October Tip Sheet: The surest way to counter the
far right is to defeat them before they get into office; and
with so many of the R candidates further to the right than
even the majority of registered Republicans in the state,
there may never be a better time to stop the radical right in
its tracks.
In your precinct:
Call or walk or ideally both. We have had requests for a
phone script, so that's below. Your job:
1) During this weekend, ask if the voter has received a VBM
ballot. If the answer is yes, remind them to mail it back. If
the answer is no, but they do want to vote by mail, tell them
they can still request a vote-by-mail ballot until 5 PM,
October 25th. That's 1 week from today. (Online and phone
information for requesting a vote-by-mail ballot was provided
in the October Tip Sheet.) If the voter intends to vote at the
polls on Election Day, remind them how important their vote is
and to not miss this critical election. 2) CRITICALLY
IMPORTANT: Every year, when volunteers for Maricopa County
Democratic Headquarters go to volunteer at the County
Elections Department on the day after the election, there are
always many mail trays FILLED with ballots that will not be
counted because they arrived in that morning's mail AFTER the
election. Please, tell people DO NOT MAIL YOUR BALLOT AFTER
THURSDAY THE 31st. After that date, hand deliver your ballot
to any polling place in the County no later than 7:00 PM on
Election Day! 3) Remind them of the location of their precinct
polling place! Because of redistricting, many precinct
boundaries have changed, leading to lots of new polling places
across the state, which led to considerable confusion during
the primary. Even worse: Across Maricopa County, for example,
some 53 polling places used for the Primary Election will be
dropped and changed to new locations because the site used on
September 10th just didn't work well as a polling place! The
polling place is always on the address label of the sample
ballot which is mailed 11 days before an election. There is a
polling place locator available at some County Recorder Web
sites or call your County Democratic Party headquarters. 4)
Before you leave or hang up, verbally remind voters to please
take the time to vote.
Script when speaking to a registered Democrat:
Hi, I'm with the Democratic Party. I'm your neighborhood
precinct committee person. I just wanted to double-check: If
you requested a vote-by-mail ballot, did you receive it?
If yes: Please make sure you mail it in the next few days.
DO NOT mail your ballot after Thursday the 31st. Every
election, thousands of ballots are not counted because they
don't arrive until after the election!! So, please, mail yours
soon. After Halloween, you can deposit your ballot at any
polling place in the County until 7 PM on Election Day.
If no: You can still request a vote-by-mail ballot until 5
PM, Friday the 25th. You can request it online or by phone
through the County Recorders Office.
If "No, I like to go to the polls on Election
Day": Please, don't forget.
We have terrific candidates and they need your support.
Thanks for talking with me.
That should suffice as a phone script or a door-to-door
script. (Memorize it, please, if you're walking door-to-door.)
If you want to give them the phone number or e-mail address of
your County Recorders office, see the October Tip Sheet.
Election Day
Consider taking Election Day off. Why? In Maricopa alone,
we need 1,500 volunteers to
· Help walk. All precincts with at least 65% Democratic
Performance will be walked twice. (That means, a candidate in
that precinct is expected to receive 65% or more of the votes
cast.) · Help at a volunteer phone bank. · Help provide
transportation/rides to the poll. · Be a poll monitor. (Call
your County Party Headquarters for information.) · If you're
an attorney, volunteer for one of our legal teams. · Help
with visibility on Election Day. · Be a part of the support
staff (food, phones, coordinate volunteers, help prepare for
the Election Night Party).
Every County will have a great need for volunteers on
Election Day. Contact your County or the State Party
Headquarters to volunteer.
The PC Tip Sheet is produced by Rick McGuire Ron Owen and
Joshua Weiss
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