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"A good field
program can increase the Democratic vote anywhere from 3% to
5%. In Arizona, where the margin of victory for a Democratic
candidate will be slim, this extra increase could mean the
difference between winning and losing. Every door that is
knocked on, every phone call that is made and every voter that
is registered between now and November will be key parts of a
winning field program."
Tom Alston, East
Valley Field Coordinator for the Arizona State Democratic
Party.
The future's so bright...
So, what's the outlook for the November general election?
Two factors make it look good for Democrats. First, we could
be looking at the reverse of the Republican Revolution of '94.
Experts hint that Dems could pick up as many as 40 House
seats. That estimate far surpasses any suggested previously -
even privately - by Minority Leader Richard Gephardt or any
other top Democratic campaign official. Indeed, leaders have
consistently said the House will be won or lost by a slim
margin. (Dems must gain 7 seats to be assured of a majority
there.) The prediction that Democrats could pick up over 5
times that many seats was made behind closed doors last week
by Gephardt and confirmed by 2 different people attending the
Dem caucus meeting.
Why the optimism? According to Rep. Gephardt, the
considerably brighter picture is due to continuing corporate
scandals, the fact that the Securities and Exchange Commission
is investigating accounting practices at Halliburton that took
place when Vice President Cheney was at the company's helm,
and new speculation about Bush's stock trades as a board
member at Harken Energy Co. Taken together, chief deputy whip
of the House, Max Sandlin of Texas, says: "As this
unfolds day after day, I think there's a good chance the
Republicans will be turned out [of power] and the Democrats
will be given a chance to get at this cowboy mentality [in
corporate America]."
What do the Rs have to say? Well, days after the Gephardt
announcement to the Dem caucus, GOP pollsters warned that
corporate scandals and economic jitters could lead to GOP
turnout problems in November. The pollsters say the WorldCom
crash and burn could be the straw that breaks the GOP
elephant's back. Over half those polled now say the country
has moved off in the wrong direction and only about one-third
of respondents say we're on the right track. Why does that
make a difference? "Wrong track" voters are far more
likely to vote than those who believe the county's headed in
the right direction. And right now, 70% of Arizona Dems say
the economy is declining, which is a much higher figure than
among Republicans. So, Dem turnout may be up while Rs are more
likely than normal to stay home. Hence, the
"turnout" problem cited above.
However, we can't leave Dem voter turnout to chance. That's
where you come in! Predicted turnout for November in Arizona
is only 51.9% of registered voters and that includes only 47%
of registered Arizona Democrats. We REALLY have to do better
than having fewer than half our voters cast ballots! (Can this
figure be right? Well, in 2000 the official general election
canvass showed 71.76% of all registered voters cast a ballot,
but that was a Presidential election year. A better comparison
is the last non-Presidential election year [1998] when only
45.82% of registered voters in Arizona cast their ballot.)
As Tom Alston said atop this newsletter, every phone call,
every door knock, ever voter contact between now and Election
Day moves us closer to taking back the state. This is not the
time to set this Tip Sheet aside and let someone else do it.
If you care for the future of this state - and of this nation
- you have to get involved now, or risk waking up on November
6th and realizing that we all should have tried just a little
harder.
Your mission:
Early voting for the September primary begins in just a few
days. In past Tip Sheets, we have urged you to do three things
before the November general election: call once, write once,
and knock once before election day encouraging votes for
Democrats. If you do these 3 things and then remind voters
right before election day to vote, we'll do great in the
November 5th general election!
For August, make calls to Dems and Independents in your
precinct with a survey question. Explain you're with the
Democratic party and ask: What's the most important issue - or
the top 3 issues -- candidates must address in AZ? OR: If you
didn't send a letter a couple of months ago when we asked you
to, here's your chance. Make it something like this:
Hi!
I'm a neighbor over on (your street
or cross streets). I'm a precinct committeeperson for the
Arizona Democratic Party. We're the "grass roots"
activists for the Party.
I'm writing to remind you that we
need all Democrats to vote in the upcoming primary (Sept.
10th) and in the general election (November 5th). Early voting
for the primary begins (began) on August 10th. We encourage
early voting using Vote by Mail. You avoid long lines,
last-minute schedule conflicts, and the risk that you'll be
busy on election day and be unable to vote. Requests for early
ballots for the September 10th primary election must be
received by August 30th. For the general election on November
5th, the cut-off date for requesting an early ballot is
October 25th. You may request your early ballot online by
going to http://www.sos.state.az.us/election/2002/Info/county.htm
and clicking on (your County).
If you want to add in a paragraph of information regarding
your next district Democratic meeting, go ahead. Otherwise,
thank them for their time and sign the letter! Remember: This
is not just smart politics, it's a public service. You're
informing voters about what they need to know to exercise
their right to vote. Your readers will be grateful for the
reminder and the good information.
Voter registration:
Tom Alston also mentioned voter reg. As we said above,
victories in November will be determined in part by Democratic
turnout (at the polls or via vote by mail) and by increasing
voter registration. To vote in the September 10th primary, the
cut-off date for registering to vote is August 12th. To be
eligible to vote in the November 5th general election, the
deadline for registration is October 7th. If you have moved
since the last election, make sure you re-register at your new
address. If you have friends, family, or co-workers who are
not registered to vote, get them to register as Democrats by
the deadlines. Or if you know of young Democrats who have
turned 18 since the last election, please make sure they are
registered to vote. Then encourage all of them to take the
second step and vote! Voter registration forms may be obtained
from any County Recorder's office in Arizona or via the
Internet at http://www.sosaz.com/election/VoterRegistration.htm.
In Maricopa County, call 602.542.8683.
Become a write-in candidate:
Remember: If you did not get your petition filed to qualify
as a ballot-elected PC, there is still time. Like all ballot
positions, you can run as a write-in candidate - and it's
easy! First register as an official write-in candidate. It's a
simple 1-page form. Call your County Democratic Party
headquarters. (For Maricopa County, call: 602.956.1947.) When
you call, ask them to mail you a copy of the write-in
candidate form. If you did not get on the ballot with petition
signatures, this process will help you become a write-in
candidate and an elected PC on September 10th! (We had a call
from a greater Arizona reader of the PC Tip Sheet. He couldn't
reach his County Democratic Party office, so we called his
County Recorder's office and got the forms for him and 4
friends. If you're having trouble getting the form, we can
help YOU. Call 602.493.6656.)
Write-in candidates must file with their County Elections
Department no later than August 27th, 2002 by 5:00 PM. Then
all you need is at least as many write-in votes as the number
of petition signatures you would have needed to get on the
ballot. Since the number of required signatures to become a
ballot-qualified PC is capped at 10, no one requires a large
number of write-in votes to win. Of course, your own write-in
vote counts!
Here's what you do: create a small card to mail to or leave
with Democrats from your precinct asking them to write in your
name for precinct committeeperson. Here's a sample:
Dear Neighbor,
I am a write-in candidate for the
position of Precinct Committeeman. PCs, as we're called, are
the grass roots of the Democratic party. I hope you're
planning on voting in the September 10th Democratic Primary.
Please, help me by writing in my name on the write-in line for
Precinct Committeeman. Write in (Your Name as filed as a
Write-In Candidate) and remember to mark my name as your vote
as you would for any other candidate. As your local Democratic
activist, if there is anything I can do to help you, please
let me know.
That's it! By the way, you have to
remind them that it's a 2-step process; if they write in your
name but forget to connect the arrow and actually vote for
you, it won't be counted as a vote.
PC handbook and PC training:
Don't forget, the PC Handbook and Resource Guide can be
e-mailed to activists. This 41-page book provides you with
everything you need to know to be a Democratic PC. If you need
a copy or would like to request a copy for someone else,
contact Rick McGuire: rickm@healthandmedical.com.
Similarly, if you are a district chair or club leader and
would like to organize PC training for your area, contact Paul
Hegarty at the Arizona State Democratic Party headquarters:
602.298.4200. Training has been going on all over the state,
so if you need some training brought to your County, please
let us know.
The
PC Tip Sheet is produced by
Rick McGuire
Ron Owen
and Joshua Weiss
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